A CLOSE 2004 RACE...OR A LANDSLIDE?

[tolivr]

Today on MSNBC's Hardball, Chris Matthews made a rather telling observation. Reelections for Presidents are not close races. Since WWII, incumbent, elected Presidents seeking their second term won by quite large margins: 1956 Eisenhower (15%), 1972 Nixon (23%), 1984 Reagan (18%), and 1996 Clinton (8%); similarly, they have lost relection bids by somewhat large margins: 1992 Bush (5.5%), Carter (9%).

The very close races involved no incumbent: 1960 Kennedy (1%), 1968 Nixon (1%), or incumbents facing the electorate for the first time: 1948 Truman (4%), 1976 Carter (2%). Johnson appears to be the only exception, an incumbent facing the electorate for the first time and winning handsomely (22%).

I haven't studied it, though I believe this trend will prove accurate even extending before WWII.

But the point is this: the 2004 election will not be close. Modern Presidential incumbents seeking reelection have averaged wins of over 15%, and have lost by over 7%.

I can't see Kerry winning by 7% and I can't see Bush winning by 15%. But if one is going to win by over 5%, I'd say Bush is the more likely to do so.

Do you agree?

[ninjalooter1701]

Since WWII, incumbent, elected Presidents seeking their second term won by quite large margins
Did you forget Carter and Bush Sr?

[tolivr]

Did you forget Carter and Bush Sr?

No, I did not. The sentence you refer to concludes "...similarly, they have lost reelection bids by somewhat large margins: 1992 Bush (5.5%), Carter (9%)."

[Atenhotep]

Anyone that would actually vote for Bush clearly doesn't have America's best interests at heart.

They are traitors, by the very standards laid out by Bushites themselves.

[kramsret]

I'm not shitting:

Of course I want Bush to lose. As every good American does.

But the key question, aside from what I WANT, is what I THINK will happen.

And I now think that Kerry will win. Unless something happens to alter the landscape between now and November, Bush is history. Back to his Bush Davidian compound outside Waco.

A little history:

In 88, I wanted Dukakis to win, but KNEW Bush was going to win.

In 92 and 96, I wanted Clinton to win, and KNEW he was going to win.

In 2000, I wanted Gore to win, and it wasn't clear who would win. In the final week, I predicted a Gore win (and I was right).

In 2004, I want Kerry to win. And I now think that Kerry WILL win.

For our nation's sake, let's hope I'm right.

[thaanatos]

thinks Krammie has crystal balls.....(avoid getting kicked in the groin....)

I stick to my prediction that Bush will win over 50% of popular vote and win an electoral landsline in november.